Indonesia
is to become the world’s 4th largest mobile
market by the end of 2013
Isabelle Paradis
July 2009
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According to the information released by HOT TELECOM
(www.hottelecom.com) in its latest report “Indonesia
Telecom country profile”, Indonesia should
enjoy by far one of Asia highest fixed growth in
the next 5 years and should become the world’s
4th largest mobile market.
With its population close to 228 million people,
the world's fourth largest country is one of the
strategic growth markets in Asia. However, Indonesia’s
population continues to be one of the least connected
in the region with fixed, mobile and Internet penetration
rates as low as 13.4%, 62.7% and 1.1% respectively
at the end of March 2009. Its connectivity level
compares poorly with neighbouring countries such
as Singapore where fixed, mobile and Internet penetration
are as high as 37.9%, 129.4% and 98.4%, and Malaysia,
were mobile penetration stands at 94.8%. Indonesia
however still surpasses India in terms of fixed
and mobile penetration.
Indonesia has a low fixed line proliferation, with
30.8 million fixed and fixed-wireless subscribers
at the end of March 2009. This is mainly due to
poor network development in rural areas, high poverty
level and accelerating mobile substitution. The
introduction of fixed-wireless technology has however
drastically improved network development in the
last 4 years. Fixed-wireless customers, now represent
71.9% of all fixed connections, compared with 16.4%
at the end of 2004.
With the expansion of the fixed-wireless network
in rural areas and the introduction of competition
and foreign investments, the number of fixed subscribers
is forecasted to grow at a Compounded Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) of 12.3% over the next 5 years, bringing
the number of fixed lines to 52.4 million at the
end of 2013, which would represent a penetration
rate of 20.8%. “Indonesia should therefore
enjoy by far one of Asia highest fixed growth in
the next 5 years” HOT TELECOM’s president
Isabelle Paradis said.
The mobile market on the other hand is continuing
its expansion, with an average growth of 49.8% between
2003 and the end of 2008. At the end of 2008, the
country boasted 138.8 million mobile customers,
representing an increase of 49.2% in that year alone.
The growth trend is likely to continue in the double-digits
until 2011, with a forecasted CAGR of 12.3% in the
next 5 years, bringing the number of mobile customers
to 246.1 million at the end of the forecasted period,
representing a penetration rate of 97.8%. At that
time, Indonesia will have become the world’s
4rth largest mobile market behind China, India and
the United States. At the end of March 2009, Indonesia’s
mobile subscribers stood at an estimated 143.6 million.
With a penetration rate of 1.1%, Indonesia’s
Internet development is far behind most Asian countries.
At the end of March 2009, the country had an estimated
2.4 million subscribers and 28.5 million users.
The advent of broadband, wireless Internet and the
proliferation of the fixed-wireless network in rural
areas should however stimulate growth in the next
5 years with a forecasted CAGR of 7.8%. Broadband
proliferation is still well behind most major Asian
countries, however operators are now focusing on
developing high speed networks, and projects in
that realm is becoming a priority. The introduction
of wireless broadband should also stimulate this
sector greatly. The number of broadband subscribers
is therefore forecasted to have reached 3.2 million
at the end of 2013 and at that time, the service
should connect 93.6% of all Internet subscribers.
Find out more in HOT TELECOM’s new 41-page
global report: http://www.hottelecom.com/indonesia-copr.html
