mobile subscribers to surpass 112 million by the
end of 2013
According to the information released by HOT TELECOM
(www.hottelecom.com) in its latest report “Vietnam
Telecom country profile”, Vietnam is one of
the world’s top 10 countries in terms of information
and communications technology (ICT) growth and should
remain in that list for the next 5 years.
Until recently, the country’s incumbent operator
VNPT enjoyed a monopoly in the fixed and mobile
arena. This situation is however rapidly evolving,
with 7 fixed operators, 7 licensed mobile operators
and 65 ISPs.
Vietnam’s fixed market has undergone a steady
growth of 24.5% in the last 5 years. Nevertheless,
this trend started to decrease in 2008 and should
continue to do so as fixed/mobile substitution accelerates.
The number of fixed customers increased by 14.4%
in 2008, to reach 13.1 million. The number of fixed
lines is therefore expected to grow by an average
of 5.2% over the next 5 years to reach 16.9 million
and a penetration of 18.2% at the end of 2013.
The mobile market is the country’s most dynamic
telecom sector with an average growth of 91.3% in
the last 5 years, to reach 69.1 million subscribers
and a penetration of 79.7% at the end of 2008. The
growth rate of the last 5 years should start decreasing
significantly as early as 2009, with a forecasted
average growth rate of 10.3% over the next 5 years,
bringing the number of mobile connections to 112.1
million at the end of 2013. At that time mobile
penetration should have reached 120.8%.
Akin to many other developing countries, Vietnam’s
Internet market is greatly underdeveloped. “Low
PC penetration (estimated at 14.0%), poor network
development, beyond Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City and
high interconnection fees are all factors contributing
to this situation” HOT TELECOM’s president
Isabelle Paradis said. However, government efforts
over the last 5 years, the advent of competition
and the introduction of broadband have started to
bear fruits. Internet penetration grew from 2.0%
in 2004 to 7.7% in 2008 and Internet subscribers
increased 5-fold from 1.7 million to 6.7 million.
Broadband services are finally taking off and accounted
for 30.6% of all Internet connection at the end
of 2008, compared with only 3.2% in 2004. After
growing by 220.0% over the last 5 years, broadband
customers reached 2.0 million at the end of 2008.
Significant growth is expected to continue over
the next 5 years with dial-up/broadband substitution
Broadband subscribers are forecasted to grow at
an average rate of 32.7% over the next 5 year to
reach 8.4 million by the end of 2013. The number
of dial-up customers is therefore expected to start
decreasing from 2008 onwards and broadband customers
should represent 81.9% of all Internet connections
at the end of the forecasted period.
Find out more in HOT TELECOM’s new 29-page
global report: http://www.hottelecom.com/vietnam-copr.html