South Africa -The largest telecom market in Africa with revenues of US$24.2 billion
October 2009
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According to the information released by HOT TELECOM (www.hottelecom.com) in its latest report “South Africa telecom country profile 2009”, South Africa’s telecoms revenue reached an estimated US$24.2 billion in 2008-2009 and the telecom industry contributes more than 7% to the country’s GDP. ‘If the current growth trend continues, telecoms revenue is forecasted to have surpassed US$32.0 billion by 2013-2014’ HOT TELECOM’s president Isabelle Paradis said.

The numbers of fixed lines reached an estimated 4.5 million at the end March 2009, representing a decrease of 0.7% over the previous year. This declining trend should start to slow in 2009-2010 however, with the arrival of the country’s Second Network Operator - Neotel. The number of fixed customers is therefore forecasted to grow slightly with a CAGR of 1.6% over the next 5 years, to reach 4.9 million and a penetration of 9.3% at the end of 2013-2014.

The mobile market has seen significant growth over the last 5 years with an average CAGR of 23.5%, bringing the number of mobile customers to 51.8 million at the end of March 2009, with a mobile penetration rate at 105.0%. The sector is expected to reach maturity at a penetration of around 115.0%, something that should occur by the end of 2012. The number of mobile subscribers is therefore forecasted to grow at a slower pace over the next 5 years, with a forecasted average CAGR of 3.1%, bringing the number of mobile customers to 60.2 million by the end of 2014. At that time, penetration should stand at 115.1% and mobile customers should represent 92.5% of all telephone lines in the country.

There were an estimated 1.4 million Internet subscribers and 4.9 million Internet users in South Africa at the end of March 2009, representing a low penetration of 2.8%. This sector is however forecasted to grow at an average CAGR of 9.7% over the next 5 years, partly stimulated by the proliferation of broadband services, by increased competition and by the increased popularity of wireless broadband services. The number of Internet subscribers is therefore forecasted to reach 2.2 million by the end of 2013-2014, representing a penetration of 4.3%.

Broadband was launched as late as 2003 in South Africa. Since 2006 however broadband has finally started to flourish, growing by an average rate of 96.7% to reach an estimated 774,000 fixed connections at the end of March 2009. When adding wireless broadband customers, the total number of broadband customers surpassed the million-mark in 2008. Broadband growth is expected to continue over the next 5 years with a forecasted average growth rate of 23.6%. This will translate into 2.2 million fixed broadband subscribers by the end of 2014 and at that time, broadband subscribers will account for 100% of all Internet connections in South Africa.

Find out more in HOT TELECOM’s new South Africa country profile report: http://www.hottelecom.com/south-africa-copr.html